Japan Travel Bureau (JTB) Foundation is forecasting a 2.7
per cent growth in outbound demand this year to 17.4 million travellers, based
on a full-year 2011 estimated result of 16.95 million.
For inbound, it is forecasting a 26.5 per cent
increase in arrivals to Japan
to 7.9 million this year, although this is still way below the peak in 2010 of
8.61 million.
"Japan
will need a little more time to surpass the pre-quake arrivals," JTB
Foundation said in a statement.
In contrast to the sound recovery of outbound, inbound
demand to Japan
marked the worst performance among past major crises.
The five major source markets for Japan, namely, South
Korea, China, Taiwan, the US and Hong Kong, comprise more than 70 per cent of
the total inbound, but while monthly growth rates from Hong Kong, China and
Taiwan were back to positive in October 2011, the other major source markets
have stayed in negative, as of November 2011.
The foundation said China would lead the inbound
recovery. "The Japanese government has gradually been easing its visa
policy for China to boost
the number of visitors to Japan.
Although Japan
lost approximately a fourth of its Chinese arrivals in 2011, the relaxation of
visa policy together with significant growth potential of the Chinese outbound
market will lead to a strong recovery in 2012, surpassing the number of
arrivals in 2010.
"Taiwan
is another market which is expected to see more arrivals in 2012 than 2010. But
arrivals for other major source markets will not reach the pre-quake level in
2012, although they will all show double-digit growths due to the bounce back
effect," it said.
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