The European Travel Commission (ETC) has just published its
third quarterly report on European Tourism in 2011 - Trends & Prospects. This is a brief overview of the report for the third quarter
of 2011.
• Signs of economic weakness have led to a revision down of the global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in
2011 and 3.1% in 2012 (at market exchange rates).
• Risks to this forecast are skewed to the downside, coming
from three different fronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis
including financial contagion, ii) the possibility that the US falls back into
recession, and iii) a hard landing in the emerging economies and China in
particular. Each of these three scenarios could be sufficient to tip the world
back into recession.
• The travel recovery is continuing. However, the rate of
expansion is slowing with few exceptions.
• European airlines have experience robust demand growth
through September. With only one exception, weekly growth rates have been above
6% and have averaged a rate of nearly 8% over this period. And seat capacity
has nearly kept pace with demand, producing stable load factors.
• Through August, room demand has grown nearly 4% and been
especially strong in Eastern and Southern Europe,
with occupancy rates up 7.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Although occupancy growth
has been relatively weak in Western Europe
(2.4% YTD), room rates have performed well above average, growing 4.8%.
• By the end of 2011, international visits to Europe are expected to surpass records set in 2008.
• However, the economic landscape presents a challenging
environment for travel. European inbound travel is expected to slow markedly,
to 2.3% in 2012 from 5.6% in 2011. The core Eurozone countries are most exposed
to the downturn and are projected to experience.
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