We have drafted an article titled “Coronavirus: the route to a planned and predictable recovery” and posted it on our website today that captures the insights from Rob’s presentation from our last week’s webinar. And below are some key data that may be useful for your stories:
Passenger capacity vs demand
- Current forward-looking schedule data indicates a global capacity increase from -80% at its peak drop earlier this year to around -20% by the end of June, though airlines are likely to make further adjustments to flight schedules depending on the changing COVID-19 environment
- Over 30% of capacity has returned in the Chinese domestic market in the last two months, marking a positive sign for short-haul travel recovery as lockdown restrictions in the country are eased
- However, the dramatic drop in capacity globally compared with 2019 remains in stark contrast to the forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in December last year, which projected capacity growth of +4.7% in 2020.
Modest uptick in tracked passenger flights
- Cirium’s ‘seven-day prior metric’ shows active aircraft have increased globally by 6%, flight cycles by 14% and hours flown by 13%, compared with a week before on April 27 2020, indicating a positive trend is emerging as some regions begin to ease lockdown measures
- However, year-on-year, active aircraft are down by 72%, flight cycles by 82% and hours flown by 84%, compared with May 6, 2019 (364 days prior)
- Aircraft utilization also remains dramatically lower than pre-COVID 19 levels for in-service jets, with single-aisle aircraft usage down 43% on average since the start of year
- Twin-aisle aircraft utilization is faring better, down just 29% on the start of the year, but many of these aircraft are being used for non-scheduled cargo services
Aircraft groundings have entered hibernation phase
- Around 13,700 aircraft, 62% of the global passenger fleet, still remain parked around the world as of May 4, 2020
- The in-service fleet of 8,320 aircraft per May 4 is approximately the same size as that operated in 1993
- However, more than 2,600 passenger jets have returned to service since March 1 – 31% of which in the China domestic market
Ø Latest data (up to 10 May) for this section can be found on our post titled “Coronavirus: Monitoring passenger jet activity through the hibernation phase” on our website, which is updated daily, Mon to Fri.
Returning aircraft to service
- Only 113 aircraft built between 2001 and 2016 have been stored for over a year, excluding Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft which were grounded before the pandemic
- There are more than 2,000 stored aircraft built in or before the year 2000. These jets may never return to service or could get a second lease of life, albeit as converted freighter aircraft
- The current demand scenario will likely result in premature retirements or ‘part outs’, particularly for stored widebody aircraft built between 2001 and 2005, such as Airbus A340s and Boeing 777s
- The challenge of returning aircraft to service is also magnified by the geographical diversity and number of unique locations in which aircraft are currently parked
- A total of 719 different locations globally are home to one or more single-aisle or twin-aisle passenger jets
- More than a fifth of the global in-storage fleet is parked at the top 20 locations, 23% by aircraft units and 27% by aircraft value
Should you need any further information or would like to talk to our experts in Hong Kong, London or New York , please feel free to let us know.
Best regards,
Tracy Cheung
Marketing and Content Manager, Asia Pacific
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